English Premier League, round 7 · Sunday, 18 October, MSK
Leeds United — Manchester United
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 18 October
In short
Evenly matched: Leeds United 32%, Manchester United 38%, draw 30%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 64%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Leeds United — Manchester United What is xG? | 1.5–1.5 | |
| Leeds United not to lose | 62% | |
| Manchester United not to lose | 68% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 64% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 36% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 57% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 43% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Leeds United
- Leeds United goals
- Manchester United goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · Arsenal1:2
- 20.09Crystal Palace0:0
- 14.09Newcastle United4:1
- 09.09away · Chelsea3:6
- 05.09away · Brighton & Hove Albion1:1
- 13.10away · Atlético Madrid0:2
- 10.10Tottenham Hotspur1:1
- 20.09away · Fulham1:1
- 16.09Brighton & Hove Albion2:3
- 13.09Manchester City0:1
Head to head
- 13.04.2026Manchester United — Leeds United1:2
- 04.01.2026Leeds United — Manchester United1:1
- 12.02.2023Leeds United — Manchester United0:2
- 08.02.2023Manchester United — Leeds United2:2
- 20.02.2022Leeds United — Manchester United2:4
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | +2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds United | 6 | 2 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | 2 | +2 | 9 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 6 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry City | 6 | 2 | -6 | 6 |
Premier League on the same day
- 5625181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- 5028211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0
- 1525602The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →