Bundesliga, round 7 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
Augsburg — Union Berlin
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Augsburg are slightly stronger: 39% against 30%, draw 32%.
The model expects few goals: 2.9 in total, against a competition average of 3.3.
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 62%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Augsburg — Union Berlin What is xG? | 1.6–1.3 | |
| Augsburg not to lose | 70% | |
| Union Berlin not to lose | 61% | |
| No draw | 68% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 62% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 38% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Augsburg
- Augsburg goals
- Union Berlin goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10Bayern München2:2
- 19.09away · Werder Bremen2:3
- 12.09Bayer Leverkusen2:2
- 06.09away · Eintracht Frankfurt4:1
- 30.08Schalke 043:0
- 10.10Elversberg1:0
- 18.09away · Bayern München0:7
- 11.09Schalke 041:3
- 05.09away · Bayer Leverkusen0:4
- 29.08Eintracht Frankfurt3:3
Head to head
- 16.05.2026Union Berlin — Augsburg4:0
- 15.01.2026Augsburg — Union Berlin1:1
- 17.05.2025Augsburg — Union Berlin1:2
- 15.01.2025Union Berlin — Augsburg0:2
- 12.04.2024Augsburg — Union Berlin2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5, Europa League or Conference League | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | +10 | 9 |
| 6, Europa League or Conference League | Augsburg | 5 | 2 | +5 | 8 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 15 | Paderborn | 5 | 1 | -4 | 4 |
| 16, Relegation play-off | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | -12 | 4 |
| 17, Relegation | Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | -4 | 3 |
Bundesliga on the same day
- 1. FC KölnSchalke 04preliminary4927241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.1
- Mainz 05Werder Bremenpreliminary5326211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2
- PaderbornHamburger SVpreliminary343036XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.6
- RB LeipzigElversbergpreliminary6222161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.5
- Borussia DortmundEintracht Frankfurtpreliminary6920111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →