Bundesliga, round 7 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
1. FC Köln — Schalke 04
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
1. FC Köln are slightly stronger: 40% against 32%, draw 29%.
3.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 66%.
Why
- By the strength ratings 1. FC Köln are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: 1. FC Köln — No. 10, 7 pts; Schalke 04 — No. 13, 5 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: 1. FC Köln 4 wins, Schalke 04 0, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: 1. FC Köln — Schalke 04 What is xG? | 1.7–1.4 | |
| 1. FC Köln not to lose | 68% | |
| Schalke 04 not to lose | 60% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 66% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 34% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 63% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 37% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap 1. FC Köln
- 1. FC Köln goals
- Schalke 04 goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10Borussia Mönchengladbach2:1
- 19.09away · Hamburger SV1:2
- 12.09Werder Bremen1:1
- 04.09away · VfB Stuttgart1:4
- 29.08Hoffenheim3:2
- 11.10away · Freiburg1:2
- 20.09Elversberg0:0
- 11.09away · Union Berlin3:1
- 05.09Bayern München0:0
- 30.08away · Augsburg0:3
Head to head
- 09.02.20251. FC Köln — Schalke 041:0
- 01.09.2024Schalke 04 — 1. FC Köln1:3
- 29.01.2023Schalke 04 — 1. FC Köln0:0
- 07.08.20221. FC Köln — Schalke 043:1
- 22.05.20211. FC Köln — Schalke 041:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | -7 | 5 |
Bundesliga on the same day
- AugsburgUnion Berlinpreliminary4331261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.3
- Mainz 05Werder Bremenpreliminary5625191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.3
- PaderbornHamburger SVpreliminary343036XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:13.0
- RB LeipzigElversbergpreliminary6920121The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.6
- Borussia DortmundEintracht Frankfurtpreliminary6820121The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →