EFL Championship, round 11 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Birmingham City — Queens Park Rangers
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Birmingham City are clear favourites: 51% against 22% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 51%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Birmingham City are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Birmingham City — Queens Park Rangers What is xG? | 1.6–1.0 | |
| Birmingham City not to lose | 78% | |
| Queens Park Rangers not to lose | 49% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 47% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 53% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Birmingham City
- Birmingham City goals
- Queens Park Rangers goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 13.10Preston North End4:0
- 10.10away · West Bromwich Albion1:0
- 19.09Middlesbrough2:2
- 12.09away · Derby County2:1
- 09.09away · Norwich City1:2
- 09.10away · West Ham United1:1
- 19.09Preston North End2:2
- 12.09away · West Bromwich Albion1:1
- 09.09away · Charlton Athletic0:0
- 05.09Middlesbrough0:1
Head to head
- 11.03.2026Birmingham City — Queens Park Rangers1:0
- 09.12.2025Queens Park Rangers — Birmingham City2:1
- 29.03.2024Queens Park Rangers — Birmingham City2:1
- 22.09.2023Birmingham City — Queens Park Rangers0:0
- 18.03.2023Queens Park Rangers — Birmingham City0:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Promotion play-offs | Southampton | 9 | 5 | +10 | 17 |
| 4, Promotion play-offs | Birmingham City | 10 | 4 | +6 | 17 |
| 5, Promotion play-offs | West Bromwich Albion | 10 | 5 | +2 | 17 |
| 8, Promotion play-offs | Blackburn Rovers | 10 | 4 | +2 | 15 |
| 9 | Queens Park Rangers | 9 | 3 | +3 | 14 |
| 10 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 9 | 4 | +2 | 14 |
Championship on the same day
- 6720131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.5
- 4729251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
- 4329281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.4
- 3929321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
- 5127231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
- 4927241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- 6222161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.5
- 3628362The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →