EFL Championship, round 11 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Norwich City — Portsmouth
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Norwich City are clear favourites: 49% against 24% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Norwich City are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Norwich City — No. 19, 9 pts; Portsmouth — No. 20, 8 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
- Norwich City: 4 defeats in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Norwich City 1 win, Portsmouth 2, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Norwich City — Portsmouth What is xG? | 1.6–1.1 | |
| Norwich City not to lose | 76% | |
| Portsmouth not to lose | 51% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 51% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 49% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Norwich City
- Norwich City goals
- Portsmouth goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · Swansea City1:2
- 20.09Bolton Wanderers3:4
- 17.09away · Manchester City0:5
- 12.09away · Middlesbrough3:4
- 09.09Birmingham City2:1
- 11.10away · Southampton0:1
- 19.09Blackburn Rovers2:2
- 12.09away · Charlton Athletic0:0
- 05.09Cardiff City2:0
- 01.09Derby County0:2
Head to head
- 03.04.2026Norwich City — Portsmouth1:1
- 16.08.2025Portsmouth — Norwich City1:2
- 18.04.2025Norwich City — Portsmouth3:5
- 10.12.2024Portsmouth — Norwich City0:0
- 05.01.2019Norwich City — Portsmouth0:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Cardiff City | 10 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
| 19 | Norwich City | 9 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 20 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 1 | -4 | 8 |
Championship on the same day
- 6720131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.5
- 4729251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
- 4329281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.4
- 5127221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
- 3929321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
- 5127231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
- 6222161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.5
- 3628362The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →