EFL Championship, round 11 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Swansea City — West Ham United
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
West Ham United are slightly stronger: 41% against 31%, draw 28%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.6.
Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 63%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- League table: Swansea City — No. 1, 23 pts; West Ham United — No. 6, 16 pts. A gap of 7 pts.
- Swansea City: 4 wins in a row.
- Days of rest before the match: Swansea City 4, West Ham United 8.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Swansea City — West Ham United What is xG? | 1.4–1.6 | |
| Swansea City not to lose | 59% | |
| West Ham United not to lose | 69% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 63% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 37% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 57% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 43% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Swansea City
- Swansea City goals
- West Ham United goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 13.10away · Millwall1:0
- 10.10Norwich City2:1
- 19.09away · Lincoln City2:1
- 12.09Burnley3:1
- 08.09away · Southampton1:3
- 09.10Queens Park Rangers1:1
- 19.09away · Millwall2:2
- 15.09Fulham2:3
- 11.09Wrexham6:0
- 08.09away · Bolton Wanderers3:2
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion | Swansea City | 10 | 7 | +9 | 23 |
| 2, Promotion | Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | +6 | 21 |
| 5, Promotion play-offs | West Bromwich Albion | 10 | 5 | +2 | 17 |
| 6, Promotion play-offs | West Ham United | 9 | 4 | +11 | 16 |
| 7, Promotion play-offs | Stoke City | 10 | 5 | +1 | 16 |
Championship on the same day
- 6221161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.3
- 4429271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
- 4329281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
- 5127221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7
- 4728241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
- 4028321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
- 5426191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- 6421151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →