EFL Championship, round 12 · Friday, 23 October, MSK
Bolton Wanderers — Middlesbrough
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 23 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Middlesbrough are clear favourites: 56% against 19% for the opponent, draw 26%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.6.
Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 62%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Middlesbrough are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Bolton Wanderers — No. 14, 13 pts; Middlesbrough — No. 2, 21 pts. A gap of 8 pts.
- Middlesbrough: unbeaten in 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Bolton Wanderers — Middlesbrough What is xG? | 1.2–1.9 | |
| Bolton Wanderers not to lose | 44% | |
| Middlesbrough not to lose | 81% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 62% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 38% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 60% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 40% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Bolton Wanderers
- Bolton Wanderers goals
- Middlesbrough goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 13.10away · Wolverhampton Wanderers3:1
- 10.10Stoke City1:2
- 20.09away · Norwich City4:3
- 12.09Cardiff City1:0
- 08.09West Ham United2:3
- 13.10away · Stoke City3:2
- 10.10Wolverhampton Wanderers1:0
- 19.09away · Birmingham City2:2
- 15.09Millwall2:2
- 12.09Norwich City4:3
Head to head
- 29.08.2023Bolton Wanderers — Middlesbrough1:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion | Swansea City | 10 | 7 | +9 | 23 |
| 2, Promotion | Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | +6 | 21 |
| 3, Promotion play-offs | Southampton | 9 | 5 | +10 | 17 |
| 13 | Charlton Athletic | 10 | 3 | -3 | 14 |
| 14 | Bolton Wanderers | 10 | 4 | -3 | 13 |
| 15 | Sheffield United | 9 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 56% will not happen in roughly 44 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →