EFL Championship: 2026/27 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 437 matches to play · updated 13 October 2026
The model played the remaining 437 matches 10,000 times. Middlesbrough have the best chance to win the title: 30%, Southampton 27%. Closest to the drop: Watford (65%).
Race for the title
| Date | Southampton | Middlesbrough | Millwall | Swansea City | Burnley | West Ham United |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 August | 14% | 13% | 15% | 4% | 12% | 1% |
| 24 August | 20% | 9% | 29% | 3% | 8% | 1% |
| 31 August | 34% | 13% | 15% | 6% | 4% | <1% |
| 7 September | 26% | 22% | 13% | 9% | 1% | 3% |
| 14 September | 29% | 26% | 6% | 8% | 1% | 8% |
| 21 September | 29% | 22% | 8% | 9% | — | 9% |
| 28 September | 29% | 23% | 8% | 11% | <1% | 10% |
| 5 October | 30% | 22% | 7% | 10% | <1% | 10% |
| 12 October | 29% | 25% | 8% | 12% | 1% | 7% |
| 13 October | 27% | 30% | 4% | 17% | <1% | 6% |
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest. Upper zones include the ones above: “Up or play-offs” counts “Promotion” too.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | Title | Promotion | Up or play-offs | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 21 (10) | 87 | 23 | 30%▲8 | 51%▲11 | 93%▲8 | <1% |
| 2 | Southampton | 17 (9) | 85 | 19 | 27%▼3 | 46%▼2 | 90%▲2 | <1% |
| 3 | Swansea City | 23 (10) | 82 | 17 | 17%▲7 | 34%▲12 | 86%▲13 | <1% |
| 4 | Birmingham City | 17 (10) | 76 | 21 | 6%▲3 | 17%▲9 | 71%▲20 | <1%▼2 |
| 5 | West Ham United | 16 (9) | 74 | 5 | 6%▼4 | 14%▼6 | 63%▼5 | 1% |
| 6 | Millwall | 14 (10) | 73 | 24 | 4%▼3 | 11%▼5 | 62%▼4 | 1% |
| 7 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 14 (9) | 69 | 16 | 2%▼5 | 6%▼10 | 46%▼15 | 3%▲2 |
| 8 | Queens Park Rangers | 14 (9) | 67 | 10 | 2% | 4% | 39%▲4 | 3%▼2 |
| 9 | Norwich City | 9 (9) | 66 | 22 | 1%▼2 | 4%▼3 | 38%▼5 | 4% |
| 10 | West Bromwich Albion | 17 (10) | 63 | 13 | 1% | 2%▼1 | 25%▼2 | 4%▼1 |
| 11 | Bristol City | 14 (10) | 62 | 8 | 1%▼1 | 2%▼2 | 25%▼9 | 6%▲1 |
| 12 | Wrexham | 11 (10) | 61 | 20 | <1%▼1 | 1%▼2 | 21%▼9 | 8%▲2 |
| 13 | Sheffield United | 12 (9) | 61 | 11 | <1% | 1% | 21%▲5 | 9%▼4 |
| 14 | Burnley | 8 (10) | 60 | 14 | <1% | 1% | 18%▲1 | 9%▼5 |
| 15 | Blackburn Rovers | 15 (10) | 59 | 12 | <1% | 1% | 17%▲6 | 9%▼9 |
| 16 | Stoke City | 16 (10) | 59 | 15 | <1% | 1% | 17%▼3 | 10% |
| 17 | Lincoln City | 11 (9) | 59 | 18 | <1%▼1 | 1%▼1 | 17%▼5 | 10%▲1 |
| 18 | Cardiff City | 10 (10) | 58 | 1 | <1% | 1% | 16%▲2 | 13%▼3 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 8 (8) | 57 | 6 | <1% | 1% | 14% | 15%▼2 |
| 20 | Bolton Wanderers | 13 (10) | 56 | 7 | <1% | <1% | 10%▲3 | 17%▼9 |
| 21 | Charlton Athletic | 14 (10) | 53 | 3 | <1% | <1% | 6%▲2 | 20%▼11 |
| 22 | Derby County | 6 (9) | 50 | 9 | <1% | <1% | 4%▼1 | 35%▲1 |
| 23 | Preston North End | 4 (10) | 43 | 2 | <1% | <1% | 1%▼2 | 59%▲16 |
| 24 | Watford | 8 (10) | 42 | 4 | — | — | 1%▼3 | 65%▲28 |
Chance of every place
Show the 24 × 24 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough | 30 | 21 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||
| Southampton | 27 | 19 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||
| Swansea City | 17 | 17 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||
| Birmingham City | 6 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| West Ham United | 6 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Millwall | 4 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Queens Park Rangers | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Norwich City | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| West Bromwich Albion | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Bristol City | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Wrexham | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| Sheffield United | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| Burnley | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| Blackburn Rovers | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| Stoke City | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |
| Lincoln City | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |
| Cardiff City | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | |
| Portsmouth | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 4 | |
| Bolton Wanderers | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 3 | ||
| Charlton Athletic | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 5 | ||||
| Derby County | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 12 | ||||
| Preston North End | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 18 | 28 | |||||||||
| Watford | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 20 | 32 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.
Championship: matches and table →
Championship: power rankings →