DFB-Pokal, round 2 · Tuesday, 27 October, MSK
Borussia Dortmund — Werder Bremen
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 27 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Borussia Dortmund are clear favourites: 74% against 9% for the opponent, draw 17%.
3.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 50%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Borussia Dortmund are about 1.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Borussia Dortmund — Werder Bremen What is xG? | 2.5–0.8 | |
| Borussia Dortmund not to lose | 91% | |
| Werder Bremen not to lose | 26% | |
| No draw | 83% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 50% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 50% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 63% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 37% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Borussia Dortmund
- Borussia Dortmund goals
- Werder Bremen goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 09.10Werder Bremen2:2
- 19.09away · VfB Stuttgart1:0
- 12.09Paderborn3:0
- 08.09Villarreal3:2
- 05.09away · Hoffenheim3:2
- 09.10away · Borussia Dortmund2:2
- 19.09Augsburg3:2
- 12.09away · 1. FC Köln1:1
- 05.09RB Leipzig3:1
- 30.08away · Freiburg1:4
Head to head
- 09.10.2026Borussia Dortmund — Werder Bremen2:2
- 16.05.2026Werder Bremen — Borussia Dortmund0:2
- 13.01.2026Borussia Dortmund — Werder Bremen3:0
- 25.01.2025Borussia Dortmund — Werder Bremen2:2
- 31.08.2024Werder Bremen — Borussia Dortmund0:0
DFB-Pokal on the same day
- BochumMainz 05preliminary1822602The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:32.9
- Sonnenhof GroßaspachAugsburgpreliminary512832The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:33.6
- Hamburger SVEintracht Frankfurtpreliminary3527382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- RW EssenRB Leipzigpreliminary39882The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:43.9
- Borussia MönchengladbachKarlsruher SCpreliminary6122171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- ElversbergDarmstadtpreliminary5923181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- 1. FC KölnUnion Berlinpreliminary4027331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 74% will not happen in roughly 26 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →