Serie A, round 6 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Unipol Domus
Cagliari — Juventus
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
1:1Missed
In short
Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, Juventus to win (54%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 54% fails in about 46 matches out of 100 on average.
Juventus are clear favourites: 54% against 17% for the opponent, draw 29%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 42%, both teams to score — 47%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Juventus are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Cagliari — Juventus What is xG? | 0.8–1.6 | |
| Cagliari not to lose | 46% | |
| Juventus not to lose | 83% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 47% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 53% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 42% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 58% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Cagliari
- Cagliari goals
- Juventus goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 19.09away · Udinese1:0
- 12.09away · Atalanta2:1
- 07.09Lecce1:0
- 03.09Hellas Verona1:2
- 30.08Inter0:1
Head to head
- 17.01.2026Cagliari — Juventus1:0
- 29.11.2025Juventus — Cagliari2:1
- 23.02.2025Cagliari — Juventus0:1
- 17.12.2024Juventus — Cagliari4:0
- 06.10.2024Juventus — Cagliari1:1
Table
Next matches
- Celta VigoJuventus15 October · Europa League2425522The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9
- MonzaCagliari19 October · Serie A3428382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.5
Serie A on the same day
- 363133XThe most likely outcome came true: X0:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 0:0, exactly right.2.5
- 6126131The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.5
- 2131482The most likely outcome came true: 21:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:2, exactly right.2.3
- 2128512The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 0:1.3.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 54% will not happen in roughly 46 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →