Colombian Primera A (Liga BetPlay) · Monday, 12 October, MSK · Estadio de Fútbol Jaraguay de Montería
CD Jaguares — Tolima
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In short
Final score 3:2: the model's most likely outcome, Tolima to win (51%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 51% fails in about 49 matches out of 100 on average.
Tolima are clear favourites: 51% against 22% for the opponent, draw 28%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 43%, both teams to score — 48%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Tolima are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
- Tolima: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: CD Jaguares — Tolima What is xG? | 0.9–1.5 | |
| CD Jaguares not to lose | 49% | |
| Tolima not to lose | 78% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 48% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 52% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 43% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 57% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap CD Jaguares
- CD Jaguares goals
- Tolima goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 03.10away · Águilas Doradas0:2
- 28.09Alianza FC1:2
- 23.09away · Independiente Medellín1:2
- 12.09Fortaleza FC2:2
- 06.09away · Junior FC3:3
- 09.10away · Atlético Nacional0:0
- 04.10Chicó FC0:0
- 28.09away · Fortaleza FC2:2
- 21.09América de Cali1:1
- 17.09away · Once Caldas0:1
Head to head
- 29.03.2026Tolima — CD Jaguares3:1
- 20.08.2024CD Jaguares — Tolima0:2
- 16.02.2024Tolima — CD Jaguares2:0
- 07.10.2023CD Jaguares — Tolima0:1
- 27.04.2023Tolima — CD Jaguares1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7, Semi-final groups | Millonarios | 14 | 5 | +7 | 22 |
| 8, Semi-final groups | Tolima | 14 | 5 | +1 | 20 |
| 9 | Cúcuta | 13 | 5 | -3 | 18 |
| 17 | Junior FC | 12 | 2 | -4 | 10 |
| 18 | CD Jaguares | 12 | 2 | -8 | 10 |
| 19 | Deportivo Pasto | 12 | 2 | -9 | 9 |
Next matches
- Santa FeCD Jaguares15 October · Colombian Primera A741891The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- Águilas DoradasTolima18 October · Colombian Primera A353034XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.4
Colombian Primera A on the same day
- 4130291The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.5
- 5128211The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →