Brazilian Serie A, round 30 · Tuesday, 13 October, MSK · Arena Condá
Chapecoense — Athletico Paranaense
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
1:4Came true
In short
Final score 1:4: the model's most likely outcome, Athletico Paranaense to win (50%), came true.
Athletico Paranaense are clear favourites: 50% against 23% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Athletico Paranaense are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: Chapecoense 0 wins, Athletico Paranaense 2, 3 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Chapecoense — Athletico Paranaense What is xG? | 1.1–1.6 | |
| Chapecoense not to lose | 50% | |
| Athletico Paranaense not to lose | 77% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 51% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 49% |
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- Athletico Paranaense goals
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Form
- 08.10away · Vitória0:4
- 19.09away · Atlético-MG1:1
- 12.09Internacional1:2
- 07.09away · Corinthians2:1
- 31.08away · Grêmio1:3
- 09.10Atlético-MG2:2
- 21.09Bahia2:1
- 12.09away · Coritiba3:3
- 06.09away · Cruzeiro1:3
- 30.08Fluminense3:3
Head to head
- 12.04.2026Athletico Paranaense — Chapecoense2:0
- 17.09.2025Chapecoense — Athletico Paranaense2:3
- 09.05.2025Athletico Paranaense — Chapecoense1:1
- 14.10.2021Chapecoense — Athletico Paranaense1:1
- 28.06.2021Athletico Paranaense — Chapecoense2:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Copa Libertadores | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | +30 | 63 |
| 3, Copa Libertadores | Athletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | +14 | 53 |
| 4, Copa Libertadores | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | +11 | 51 |
| 19, Relegation | Remo | 30 | 5 | -15 | 25 |
| 20, Relegation | Chapecoense | 29 | 3 | -31 | 18 |
Next matches
- BotafogoChapecoense18 October · Brasileirao6620131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- Athletico ParanaensePalmeiras18 October · Brasileirao3329382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.7
Brasileirao on the same day
- 4228301The most likely outcome came true: 14:2Final score 4:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →