Brazilian Serie A, round 30 · Tuesday, 13 October, MSK · Estádio Municipal Cícero de Souza Marques
RB Bragantino — Cruzeiro
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
4:2Came true
In short
Final score 4:2: the model's most likely outcome, RB Bragantino to win (42%), came true.
RB Bragantino are slightly stronger: 42% against 30%, draw 28%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings RB Bragantino are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- RB Bragantino: winless in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: RB Bragantino 1 win, Cruzeiro 3, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: RB Bragantino — Cruzeiro What is xG? | 1.4–1.2 | |
| RB Bragantino not to lose | 70% | |
| Cruzeiro not to lose | 58% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 49% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 51% |
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- Handicap RB Bragantino
- RB Bragantino goals
- Cruzeiro goals
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Form
- 08.10Mirassol1:1
- 04.10away · Atlético-MG0:1
- 21.09away · Flamengo1:2
- 13.09away · Botafogo1:1
- 05.09Bahia2:3
- 08.10São Paulo2:0
- 20.09away · Vitória3:1
- 13.09away · Santos1:2
- 06.09Athletico Paranaense3:1
- 02.09away · Atlético-MG1:2
Head to head
- 13.04.2026Cruzeiro — RB Bragantino2:1
- 22.09.2025Cruzeiro — RB Bragantino2:1
- 21.04.2025RB Bragantino — Cruzeiro1:0
- 02.12.2024RB Bragantino — Cruzeiro1:1
- 13.07.2024Cruzeiro — RB Bragantino2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5, Copa Libertadores | Bahia | 30 | 13 | +8 | 49 |
| 6, Copa Sudamericana | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | +2 | 48 |
| 7, Copa Sudamericana | Atlético-MG | 30 | 13 | +6 | 47 |
| 8, Copa Sudamericana | Santos | 30 | 11 | +1 | 42 |
| 9, Copa Sudamericana | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | +3 | 40 |
| 10, Copa Sudamericana | São Paulo | 30 | 11 | 0 | 39 |
Next matches
- GrêmioCruzeiro18 October · Brasileirao2829432The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.9
- RemoRB Bragantino19 October · Brasileirao2629452The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.7
Brasileirao on the same day
- 2327502The most likely outcome came true: 21:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 1:2.2.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →