English Premier League, round 6 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Stamford Bridge
Chelsea — AFC Bournemouth
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
5:1Came true
In short
Final score 5:1: the model's most likely outcome, Chelsea to win (46%), came true.
Chelsea are slightly stronger: 46% against 28%, draw 27%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.3 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.
Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 67%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Chelsea are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Chelsea — AFC Bournemouth What is xG? | 1.8–1.4 | |
| Chelsea not to lose | 72% | |
| AFC Bournemouth not to lose | 54% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 67% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 33% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 63% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 37% |
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- AFC Bournemouth goals
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Form
- 18.09away · Brentford0:3
- 12.09Hull City2:2
- 09.09Leeds United6:3
- 06.09away · Arsenal1:2
- 30.08Brighton & Hove Albion4:3
- 20.09Liverpool0:1
- 17.09away · Real Sociedad2:1
- 12.09Brentford2:2
- 08.09Lincoln City4:0
- 05.09away · Newcastle United2:2
Head to head
- 30.12.2025Chelsea — AFC Bournemouth2:2
- 06.12.2025AFC Bournemouth — Chelsea0:0
- 14.01.2025Chelsea — AFC Bournemouth2:2
- 14.09.2024AFC Bournemouth — Chelsea0:1
- 19.05.2024Chelsea — AFC Bournemouth2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5, Europa League or Conference League | Everton | 6 | 2 | +3 | 10 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | +2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds United | 6 | 2 | +3 | 9 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | -6 | 4 |
| 18, Relegation | AFC Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | -6 | 3 |
| 19, Relegation | Tottenham Hotspur | 6 | 0 | -6 | 3 |
Next matches
- AFC BournemouthSturm Graz15 October · Europa League7018121The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1
- EvertonChelsea17 October · Premier League333037XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.8
Premier League on the same day
- 7119101The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.2.7
- 352935XThe most likely outcome came true: X2:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 1:1.2.9
- 2228502The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
- 2229492The most likely outcome came true: 20:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
- 6124151The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:0.3.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →