UEFA Europa League, round 2 · Thursday, 15 October, MSK · Vitality Stadium
AFC Bournemouth — Sturm Graz
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 15 October
In short
AFC Bournemouth are clear favourites: 70% against 12% for the opponent, draw 18%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.
Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 51%.
Why
- By the strength ratings AFC Bournemouth are about 1.1 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: AFC Bournemouth — No. 10, 3 pts; Sturm Graz — No. 20, 1 pt. A gap of 2 pts.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: AFC Bournemouth — Sturm Graz What is xG? | 2.3–0.8 | |
| AFC Bournemouth not to lose | 88% | |
| Sturm Graz not to lose | 30% | |
| No draw | 82% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 61% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 39% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap AFC Bournemouth
- AFC Bournemouth goals
- Sturm Graz goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · Chelsea1:5
- 20.09Liverpool0:1
- 17.09away · Real Sociedad2:1
- 12.09Brentford2:2
- 08.09Lincoln City4:0
- 10.10away · Austria Wien2:0
- 20.09away · Salzburg0:3
- 16.09Rennes0:0
- 13.09LASK2:1
- 30.08away · Rapid Wien1:3
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | OFI Crete | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 10, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | AFC Bournemouth | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 11, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Lyon | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 19, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 20, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Sturm Graz | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 21, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Anderlecht | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
Europa League on the same day
- 4925261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- 6720131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
- 6720131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.1
- 3226412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
- 5524211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- 4026341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- 5723201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- 2926452The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 70% will not happen in roughly 30 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →