Major League Soccer (MLS), round 28 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Soldier Field
Chicago Fire FC — New York City FC
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
2:1Came true
In short
Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Chicago Fire FC to win (51%), came true.
Chicago Fire FC are clear favourites: 51% against 23% for the opponent, draw 26%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 61%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Chicago Fire FC are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: Chicago Fire FC 0 wins, New York City FC 3, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Chicago Fire FC — New York City FC What is xG? | 1.9–1.2 | |
| Chicago Fire FC not to lose | 77% | |
| New York City FC not to lose | 49% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 59% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 41% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Chicago Fire FC
- Chicago Fire FC goals
- New York City FC goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 07.10Vancouver Whitecaps3:1
- 27.09away · Charlotte FC1:0
- 20.09away · Nashville SC0:3
- 14.09New England Revolution1:2
- 10.09Inter Miami CF1:1
- 27.09away · Atlanta United2:2
- 19.09Red Bull New York0:1
- 13.09away · Real Salt Lake2:0
- 10.09New England Revolution1:2
- 05.09Nashville SC0:0
Head to head
- 26.07.2026New York City FC — Chicago Fire FC3:1
- 14.09.2025Chicago Fire FC — New York City FC1:3
- 25.05.2025New York City FC — Chicago Fire FC3:1
- 25.08.2024New York City FC — Chicago Fire FC2:2
- 14.07.2024Chicago Fire FC — New York City FC0:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Inter Miami CF | 28 | 13 | +18 | 49 |
| 5, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Chicago Fire FC | 28 | 14 | +11 | 48 |
| 6, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | FC Dallas | 28 | 13 | +7 | 47 |
| 18, Wild-card game, 8th v 9th, for a playoff place | Red Bull New York | 28 | 10 | -14 | 36 |
| 19 | New York City FC | 28 | 8 | +4 | 33 |
| 20 | Portland Timbers | 28 | 9 | -3 | 33 |
Next matches
- Inter Miami CFNew York City FC15 October · MLS5923181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.5
- Chicago Fire FCPhiladelphia Union15 October · MLS3528372The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.3
MLS on the same day
- 4428281The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →