Major League Soccer (MLS), round 28 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · BMO Field
Toronto FC — CF Montréal
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
2:1Came true
In short
Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Toronto FC to win (44%), came true.
Toronto FC are slightly stronger: 44% against 28%, draw 28%.
The model expects few goals: 2.7 in total, against a competition average of 3.3.
Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Toronto FC — CF Montréal What is xG? | 1.5–1.2 | |
| Toronto FC not to lose | 72% | |
| CF Montréal not to lose | 56% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 50% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 50% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Toronto FC
- Toronto FC goals
- CF Montréal goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 27.09away · Nashville SC0:2
- 20.09away · St. Louis City1:3
- 13.09away · Orlando City0:3
- 10.09Nashville SC2:1
- 06.09Chicago Fire FC4:4
- 27.09FC Cincinnati3:1
- 20.09Columbus Crew0:2
- 13.09away · Colorado Rapids0:1
- 10.09Charlotte FC1:2
- 06.09away · Philadelphia Union0:2
Head to head
- 17.07.2026CF Montréal — Toronto FC0:0
- 31.08.2025Toronto FC — CF Montréal1:1
- 17.05.2025CF Montréal — Toronto FC1:6
- 21.07.2024CF Montréal — Toronto FC0:1
- 19.05.2024Toronto FC — CF Montréal5:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Real Salt Lake | 28 | 9 | -5 | 32 |
| 23 | Toronto FC | 28 | 7 | -11 | 32 |
| 24 | Austin FC | 28 | 7 | -15 | 31 |
| 28 | Atlanta United | 28 | 7 | -15 | 27 |
| 29 | CF Montréal | 28 | 6 | -21 | 24 |
| 30 | Sporting Kansas City | 28 | 6 | -33 | 22 |
Next matches
- Toronto FCOrlando City15 October · MLS3827351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.3
- CF MontréalAtlanta United15 October · MLS4427281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
MLS on the same day
- 5126231The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.3.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →