Liga MX (Mexico), round 12 · Sunday, 18 October, MSK
Chivas — Tigres
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 18 October
In short
Chivas are clear favourites: 55% against 19% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Chivas are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Chivas — No. 4, 19 pts; Tigres — No. 13, 13 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Chivas 1 win, Tigres 2, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Chivas — Tigres What is xG? | 1.7–1.0 | |
| Chivas not to lose | 81% | |
| Tigres not to lose | 45% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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Form
- 11.10away · Atlas1:1
- 27.09Querétaro FC0:2
- 20.09away · CF América2:2
- 14.09Pumas3:0
- 06.09away · Atlético de San Luis3:0
Head to head
- 10.05.2026Chivas — Tigres2:0
- 03.05.2026Tigres — Chivas3:1
- 12.04.2026Tigres — Chivas4:1
- 18.09.2025Chivas — Tigres0:0
- 26.01.2025Chivas — Tigres1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Liguilla (playoffs) | Querétaro FC | 10 | 6 | +7 | 20 |
| 4, Liguilla (playoffs) | Chivas | 11 | 5 | +7 | 19 |
| 5, Liguilla (playoffs) | León | 11 | 5 | +3 | 18 |
| 12 | Pumas | 11 | 3 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 | Tigres | 11 | 3 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 | Santos Laguna | 11 | 4 | -4 | 13 |
Liga MX on the same day
- 4227301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1
- 3130392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- 731891The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
- 7019111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 55% will not happen in roughly 45 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →