Ukrainian Premier League, round 10 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Chornomorets Odesa — Karpaty
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Karpaty are clear favourites: 57% against 16% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 41%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Karpaty are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Chornomorets Odesa — No. 14, 5 pts; Karpaty — No. 5, 14 pts. A gap of 9 pts.
- Chornomorets Odesa: winless in 4.
- Last 2 meetings: Chornomorets Odesa 0 wins, Karpaty 2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Chornomorets Odesa — Karpaty What is xG? | 0.7–1.6 | |
| Chornomorets Odesa not to lose | 43% | |
| Karpaty not to lose | 84% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 41% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 59% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 41% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 59% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Chornomorets Odesa
- Chornomorets Odesa goals
- Karpaty goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 10.10FC Kharkiv1:2
- 18.09Obolon Kyiv1:1
- 14.09away · Shakhtar Donetsk0:2
- 04.09Liviy Bereh0:0
- 30.08Kryvbas1:0
- 11.10away · Dynamo Kyiv0:1
- 20.09Veres Rivne1:1
- 11.09away · FC Kolos Kovalivka2:0
- 05.09Shakhtar Donetsk1:2
- 29.08away · Liviy Bereh1:1
Head to head
- 30.03.2025Karpaty — Chornomorets Odesa4:0
- 21.09.2024Chornomorets Odesa — Karpaty0:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | FC Kharkiv | 7 | 5 | +9 | 15 |
| 5 | Karpaty | 8 | 4 | +9 | 14 |
| 6 | Zorya | 8 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 13, Relegation play-off | Kryvbas | 6 | 1 | -3 | 5 |
| 14, Relegation play-off | Chornomorets Odesa | 7 | 1 | -5 | 5 |
| 15, Relegation | Obolon Kyiv | 7 | 0 | -10 | 4 |
Ukrainian Premier League on the same day
- Bukovyna ChernivtsiKryvbaspreliminary333236XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 57% will not happen in roughly 43 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →