Peruvian Liga 1 · Monday, 12 October, MSK · Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega
Cusco FC — Alianza Lima
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
1:2Missed
In short
Final score 1:2: the model's most likely outcome, Cusco FC to win (41%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 41% fails in about 59 matches out of 100 on average.
Cusco FC are slightly stronger: 41% against 30%, draw 29%.
The model expects few goals: 2.3 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.
Over 2.5 goals — 40%, both teams to score — 47%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: Cusco FC 3 wins, Alianza Lima 2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Cusco FC — Alianza Lima What is xG? | 1.2–1.0 | |
| Cusco FC not to lose | 70% | |
| Alianza Lima not to lose | 59% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 47% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 53% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 40% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 60% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Cusco FC
- Cusco FC goals
- Alianza Lima goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 19.09away · FC Cajamarca2:1
- 12.09FBC Melgar0:1
- 06.09Club Deportivo Moquegua2:0
- 31.08away · Cienciano2:1
- 23.08away · Deportivo Garcilaso1:4
- 19.09Asociación Deportiva Tarma2:0
- 13.09Universitario de Deportes1:2
- 06.09away · ADC Juan Pablo II1:1
- 30.08Deportivo Garcilaso0:1
- 23.08away · FBC Melgar1:1
Head to head
- 19.04.2026Alianza Lima — Cusco FC8:0
- 20.07.2025Cusco FC — Alianza Lima2:0
- 09.02.2025Alianza Lima — Cusco FC3:0
- 03.11.2024Alianza Lima — Cusco FC1:2
- 25.05.2024Cusco FC — Alianza Lima3:0
Next matches
- Sport HuancayoCusco FC16 October · Peruvian Liga 13728351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- Alianza LimaAtlético Grau17 October · Peruvian Liga 1721991The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →