Peruvian Liga 1 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Alianza Lima — Atlético Grau
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Alianza Lima are clear favourites: 72% against 9% for the opponent, draw 19%.
The model expects few goals: 2.3 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.
Over 2.5 goals — 43%, both teams to score — 36%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Alianza Lima are about 1.1 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: Alianza Lima 3 wins, Atlético Grau 1, 1 draw.
- Days of rest before the match: Alianza Lima 5, Atlético Grau 9.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Alianza Lima — Atlético Grau What is xG? | 1.8–0.5 | |
| Alianza Lima not to lose | 91% | |
| Atlético Grau not to lose | 28% | |
| No draw | 81% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 36% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 64% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 43% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 57% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Alianza Lima
- Alianza Lima goals
- Atlético Grau goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Form
- 12.10away · Cusco FC2:1
- 19.09Asociación Deportiva Tarma2:0
- 13.09Universitario de Deportes1:2
- 06.09away · ADC Juan Pablo II1:1
- 30.08Deportivo Garcilaso0:1
- 08.10Los Chankas0:0
- 19.09away · Sporting Cristal1:3
- 13.09Alianza Atlético3:1
- 06.09away · Deportivo Garcilaso2:4
- 01.09FBC Melgar1:0
Head to head
- 26.04.2026Atlético Grau — Alianza Lima0:1
- 02.10.2025Alianza Lima — Atlético Grau2:1
- 10.05.2025Atlético Grau — Alianza Lima1:1
- 18.09.2024Atlético Grau — Alianza Lima1:0
- 15.04.2024Alianza Lima — Atlético Grau2:0
Peruvian Liga 1 on the same day
- 7416101The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
- 4528271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 72% will not happen in roughly 28 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →