Uruguayan Primera Division, round 10 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK
Deportivo Maldonado — Liverpool FC
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1:1Missed
In short
Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, Deportivo Maldonado to win (42%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 42% fails in about 58 matches out of 100 on average.
Deportivo Maldonado are slightly stronger: 42% against 28%, draw 30%.
2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 39%, both teams to score — 47%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- Deportivo Maldonado: 3 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Deportivo Maldonado 2 wins, Liverpool FC 3.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Deportivo Maldonado — Liverpool FC What is xG? | 1.3–1.0 | |
| Deportivo Maldonado not to lose | 72% | |
| Liverpool FC not to lose | 58% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 47% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 53% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 39% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 61% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Deportivo Maldonado
- Deportivo Maldonado goals
- Liverpool FC goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 04.10Central Español3:0
- 27.09away · Montevideo City Torque2:0
- 20.09Cerro Largo2:0
- 13.09away · Defensor Sporting0:1
- 06.09Montevideo Wanderers2:0
- 03.10Club Atlético Progreso3:2
- 27.09away · Central Español2:1
- 21.09Racing0:0
- 15.09away · Montevideo City Torque1:3
- 07.09Boston River1:0
Head to head
- 06.04.2026Liverpool FC — Deportivo Maldonado0:2
- 15.09.2024Deportivo Maldonado — Liverpool FC0:1
- 03.03.2024Liverpool FC — Deportivo Maldonado1:2
- 03.12.2023Deportivo Maldonado — Liverpool FC0:2
- 03.07.2023Liverpool FC — Deportivo Maldonado3:2
Next matches
- Liverpool FCClub Atletico Peñarol19 October · Uruguayan Primera2630442The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.3
- Nacional (URU)Deportivo Maldonado20 October · Uruguayan Primera5126231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.4
Uruguayan Primera on the same day
- 5028221The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 1:0.2.1
- 4330281The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:3Final score 1:3. Model's score: 2:0.2.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →