EFL Championship, round 11 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Derby County — Stoke City
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Derby County are clear favourites: 51% against 23% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 52%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Derby County are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Derby County — Stoke City What is xG? | 1.5–1.0 | |
| Derby County not to lose | 77% | |
| Stoke City not to lose | 49% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 47% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 53% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Derby County
- Derby County goals
- Stoke City goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10Wrexham1:1
- 19.09away · Burnley1:1
- 12.09Birmingham City1:2
- 09.09West Bromwich Albion0:1
- 05.09away · West Ham United0:3
- 13.10Middlesbrough2:3
- 10.10away · Bolton Wanderers2:1
- 19.09Sheffield United2:1
- 12.09away · Watford2:1
- 08.09away · Cardiff City1:1
Head to head
- 06.04.2026Derby County — Stoke City2:0
- 09.08.2025Stoke City — Derby County3:1
- 03.05.2025Derby County — Stoke City0:0
- 02.11.2024Stoke City — Derby County2:1
- 30.12.2021Stoke City — Derby County1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6, Promotion play-offs | West Ham United | 9 | 4 | +11 | 16 |
| 7, Promotion play-offs | Stoke City | 10 | 5 | +1 | 16 |
| 8, Promotion play-offs | Blackburn Rovers | 10 | 4 | +2 | 15 |
| 22, Relegation | Watford | 10 | 2 | -11 | 8 |
| 23, Relegation | Derby County | 9 | 1 | -7 | 6 |
| 24, Relegation | Preston North End | 10 | 1 | -12 | 4 |
Championship on the same day
- 6720131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.5
- 4729251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
- 4329281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.4
- 5127221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
- 3929321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
- 4927241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- 6222161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.5
- 3628362The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →