Belarusian Premier League · Monday, 19 October, MSK
Din. Minsk — Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 19 October
In short
Din. Minsk are clear favourites: 76% against 7% for the opponent, draw 17%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 38%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Din. Minsk are about 1.5 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Din. Minsk — No. 2, 46 pts; Arsenal Dzerzhinsk — No. 12, 23 pts. A gap of 23 pts.
- Arsenal Dzerzhinsk: winless in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Din. Minsk 4 wins, Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 1.
- Days of rest before the match: Din. Minsk 8, Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 10.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Din. Minsk — Arsenal Dzerzhinsk What is xG? | 2.2–0.5 | |
| Din. Minsk not to lose | 93% | |
| Arsenal Dzerzhinsk not to lose | 24% | |
| No draw | 83% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 38% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 62% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Din. Minsk
- Din. Minsk goals
- Arsenal Dzerzhinsk goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10away · Dnepr Mogilev3:2
- 19.09BATE2:0
- 13.09Dynamo Brest0:1
- 06.09away · ML Vitebsk0:0
- 02.09Naftan5:1
- 09.10Dynamo Brest0:1
- 18.09away · ML Vitebsk1:5
- 12.09Baranovici0:0
- 07.09away · Isloch1:1
- 30.08Zhodino2:4
Head to head
- 30.05.2026Arsenal Dzerzhinsk — Din. Minsk0:1
- 08.11.2025Din. Minsk — Arsenal Dzerzhinsk1:0
- 22.06.2025Arsenal Dzerzhinsk — Din. Minsk2:1
- 29.10.2024Din. Minsk — Arsenal Dzerzhinsk2:0
- 01.06.2024Arsenal Dzerzhinsk — Din. Minsk1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League qualifying | ML Vitebsk | 22 | 13 | +29 | 47 |
| 2, Europa League or Conference League | Din. Minsk | 22 | 14 | +22 | 46 |
| 3, Europa League or Conference League | Isloch | 23 | 13 | +19 | 46 |
| 11 | Baranovici | 24 | 6 | -17 | 25 |
| 12 | Arsenal Dzerzhinsk | 24 | 5 | -18 | 23 |
| 13 | BATE | 24 | 4 | -12 | 21 |
Belarusian Premier League on the same day
- 2428472The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.5
- 6522131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 76% will not happen in roughly 24 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →