Belarusian Premier League: 2026 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 53 matches to play · updated 14 October 2026
The model played the remaining 53 matches 10,000 times. ML Vitebsk have the best chance to win the title: 57%, Din. Minsk 33%. Closest to the drop: Naftan (97%).
Race for the title
| Date | ML Vitebsk | Din. Minsk | Isloch | Neman | BATE | Zhodino |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 March | 35% | 26% | 14% | 3% | 2% | 3% |
| 30 March | 36% | 26% | 15% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| 6 April | 26% | 40% | 10% | 4% | 6% | 5% |
| 13 April | 39% | 40% | 2% | 9% | 1% | 2% |
| 20 April | 53% | 30% | 2% | 8% | <1% | 2% |
| 27 April | 46% | 30% | 4% | 9% | <1% | 1% |
| 4 May | 58% | 18% | 3% | 9% | <1% | 1% |
| 11 May | 67% | 20% | 1% | 3% | — | 1% |
| 18 May | 80% | 15% | 1% | 1% | — | <1% |
| 25 May | 77% | 17% | 2% | 1% | — | 1% |
| 1 June | 80% | 17% | 1% | <1% | — | 1% |
| 8 June | 79% | 17% | 1% | <1% | — | 1% |
| 15 June | 60% | 35% | 2% | 1% | — | 1% |
| 22 June | 41% | 52% | 4% | <1% | — | 2% |
| 29 June | 45% | 41% | 8% | <1% | — | 3% |
| 6 July | 42% | 47% | 10% | — | — | 1% |
| 13 July | 41% | 47% | 11% | <1% | — | <1% |
| 20 July | 42% | 47% | 10% | — | — | <1% |
| 27 July | 41% | 48% | 10% | — | — | <1% |
| 3 August | 41% | 46% | 12% | — | — | <1% |
| 10 August | 41% | 46% | 12% | — | — | — |
| 17 August | 40% | 44% | 16% | — | — | — |
| 24 August | 23% | 63% | 14% | — | — | — |
| 31 August | 53% | 28% | 19% | <1% | — | — |
| 7 September | 31% | 37% | 32% | — | — | — |
| 14 September | 30% | 28% | 42% | — | — | — |
| 21 September | 42% | 36% | 22% | — | — | — |
| 28 September | 43% | 35% | 22% | — | — | — |
| 5 October | 42% | 36% | 22% | <1% | — | — |
| 12 October | 57% | 32% | 10% | <1% | — | — |
| 14 October | 57% | 33% | 10% | <1% | — | — |
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest. Upper zones include the ones above: “Europe” counts “UCL incl. qual.” too.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | Title | UCL incl. qual. | Europe | Play-out | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ML Vitebsk | 47 (22) | 64 | 10 | 57%▲15 | 57%▲15 | 99%▲3 | — | — |
| 2 | Din. Minsk | 46 (22) | 63 | 15 | 33%▼3 | 33%▼3 | 98%▲2 | — | — |
| 3 | Isloch | 46 (23) | 60 | 14 | 10%▼12 | 10%▼12 | 90%▼2 | — | — |
| 4 | Dynamo Brest | 43 (24) | 54 | 12 | <1% | <1% | 11% | — | — |
| 5 | Neman | 40 (23) | 50 | 4 | <1% | <1% | 2% | — | — |
| 6 | FC Gomel | 39 (24) | 48 | 8 | — | — | 1%▼3 | — | — |
| 7 | Vitebsk | 37 (24) | 45 | 7 | — | — | <1% | — | — |
| 8 | FC Minsk | 34 (24) | 41 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9 | Zhodino | 30 (23) | 40 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 10 | Slavia Mozyr | 25 (23) | 33 | 3 | — | — | — | 2% | <1% |
| 11 | Baranovici | 25 (24) | 32 | 16 | — | — | — | 5%▲1 | <1% |
| 12 | BATE | 21 (23) | 29 | 11 | — | — | — | 16%▼15 | 5%▼10 |
| 13 | Arsenal Dzerzhinsk | 23 (24) | 29 | 6 | — | — | — | 22%▲1 | 7%▲2 |
| 14 | Belshina | 21 (23) | 27 | 5 | — | — | — | 38%▲13 | 14%▲7 |
| 15 | Dnepr Mogilev | 16 (24) | 22 | 9 | — | — | — | 15%▼2 | 77%▲4 |
| 16 | Naftan | 17 (24) | 20 | 1 | — | — | — | 2%▲1 | 97%▼2 |
Chance of every place
Show the 16 × 16 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ML Vitebsk | 57 | 28 | 13 | 1 | ||||||||||||
| Din. Minsk | 33 | 45 | 19 | 2 | ||||||||||||
| Isloch | 10 | 25 | 55 | 9 | 1 | |||||||||||
| Dynamo Brest | 1 | 10 | 59 | 20 | 7 | 2 | ||||||||||
| Neman | 2 | 17 | 39 | 28 | 12 | 2 | ||||||||||
| FC Gomel | 1 | 9 | 31 | 38 | 17 | 4 | 1 | |||||||||
| Vitebsk | 1 | 8 | 22 | 46 | 17 | 5 | ||||||||||
| FC Minsk | 2 | 11 | 39 | 41 | 5 | |||||||||||
| Zhodino | 3 | 11 | 35 | 40 | 7 | 2 | ||||||||||
| Slavia Mozyr | 2 | 7 | 40 | 27 | 16 | 7 | 2 | |||||||||
| Baranovici | 1 | 4 | 28 | 29 | 22 | 11 | 5 | |||||||||
| BATE | 1 | 11 | 21 | 25 | 21 | 16 | 4 | |||||||||
| Arsenal Dzerzhinsk | 5 | 13 | 22 | 31 | 22 | 7 | ||||||||||
| Belshina | 4 | 8 | 13 | 22 | 38 | 13 | 1 | |||||||||
| Dnepr Mogilev | 1 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 53 | 24 | ||||||||||
| Naftan | 1 | 2 | 23 | 74 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.
Belarusian Premier League: matches and table →
Belarusian Premier League: power rankings →