Russian Premier League, round 11 · Sunday, 18 October, MSK
Dinamo Moscow — CSKA Moscow
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In short
Dinamo Moscow are clear favourites: 47% against 24% for the opponent, draw 29%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 2.9 in total, against a competition average of 2.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 60%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Dinamo Moscow are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Dinamo Moscow — No. 2, 22 pts; CSKA Moscow — No. 1, 22 pts.
- Dinamo Moscow: 5 wins in a row; CSKA Moscow: unbeaten in 4.
- Last 5 meetings: Dinamo Moscow 1 win, CSKA Moscow 3, 1 draw.
- Days of rest before the match: Dinamo Moscow 4, CSKA Moscow 7.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Dinamo Moscow — CSKA Moscow What is xG? | 1.7–1.2 | |
| Dinamo Moscow not to lose | 76% | |
| CSKA Moscow not to lose | 53% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 60% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 40% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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- Handicap Dinamo Moscow
- Dinamo Moscow goals
- CSKA Moscow goals
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Form
- 14.10away · FK Akhmat2:1
- 11.10away · Rubin Kazan1:0
- 17.09away · FC Rostov3:0
- 12.09FC Orenburg1:0
- 06.09Spartak Moscow2:1
- 11.10Rodina3:0
- 17.09away · Dynamo Makhachkala3:1
- 12.09Rubin Kazan1:1
- 05.09away · Zenit St. Petersburg2:1
- 01.09away · FC Rostov0:2
Head to head
- 08.03.2026CSKA Moscow — Dinamo Moscow1:4
- 17.08.2025Dinamo Moscow — CSKA Moscow1:3
- 16.04.2025Dinamo Moscow — CSKA Moscow0:0
- 06.04.2025CSKA Moscow — Dinamo Moscow3:1
- 12.03.2025CSKA Moscow — Dinamo Moscow2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSKA Moscow | 10 | 6 | +9 | 22 |
| 2 | Dinamo Moscow | 10 | 7 | +7 | 22 |
| 3 | Zenit St. Petersburg | 10 | 7 | +11 | 21 |
Russian Premier League on the same day
- 712181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
- 6225131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
- 5629151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →