Segunda Division, round 12 · Saturday, 31 October, MSK

Eibar — Almería

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Model prediction for 31 October

Eibar45%
Draw27%
Almería28%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Eibar are slightly stronger: 45% against 28%, draw 27%.

2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 56%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Eibar are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Eibar — Almería What is xG?1.5–1.2
Eibar not to lose72%
Almería not to lose55%
No draw73%
Both teams to score: yes56%
Both teams to score: no44%
Total over 2.550%
Total under 2.550%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

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  • Handicap Eibar
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  • Almería goals
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Form

Eibar

  • 12.10away · Real Oviedo1:3
  • 03.10away · Albacete3:1
  • 27.09Las Palmas3:2
  • 19.09away · Eldense2:1
  • 14.09away · Celta Fortuna4:0

Almería

  • 11.10Leganés3:0
  • 03.10Burgos CF2:1
  • 27.09away · Mallorca1:0
  • 20.09Celta Fortuna2:0
  • 12.09away · Córdoba2:0

Head to head

  • 25.01.2026Eibar — Almería1:0
  • 01.11.2025Almería — Eibar3:1
  • 07.03.2025Eibar — Almería1:0
  • 22.09.2024Almería — Eibar2:2
  • 24.01.2022Almería — Eibar0:2

Full record: 6 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, PromotionAlmería970216–5+1121
2, PromotionEibar970219–10+921
3, Promotion play-offsCastellón962115–4+1120

Season 2026/27

Full table

Segunda Division on the same day

  • 2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
  • 1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.4
  • AlbaceteSabadellpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.4

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →