Segunda Division, round 9 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Estadio Municipal Nuevo Pepico Amat
Eldense — Córdoba
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2:1Missed
In short
Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, a draw (30%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 30% fails in about 70 matches out of 100 on average.
Evenly matched: Eldense 34%, Córdoba 36%, draw 30%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 59%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Córdoba are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Eldense — Córdoba What is xG? | 1.4–1.4 | |
| Eldense not to lose | 64% | |
| Córdoba not to lose | 66% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 59% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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- Córdoba goals
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Form
- 02.10Real Oviedo4:1
- 27.09away · Burgos CF0:1
- 19.09Eibar1:2
- 13.09away · Sporting Gijón1:0
- 05.09Mallorca0:0
- 05.10Tenerife3:2
- 27.09away · Real Valladolid1:3
- 18.09away · Albacete2:1
- 12.09Almería0:2
- 07.09away · Sabadell2:3
Head to head
- 26.04.2025Eldense — Córdoba1:1
- 26.10.2024Córdoba — Eldense2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Celta Fortuna | 9 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 14 | Eldense | 9 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 15 | Las Palmas | 9 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 17 | FC Andorra | 9 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 18 | Córdoba | 9 | 3 | -6 | 9 |
| 19, Relegation | Real Sociedad B | 9 | 2 | -5 | 8 |
Next matches
- LeganésCórdoba16 October · Segunda Division3928331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
- Real ValladolidEldense18 October · Segunda Division5425201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
Segunda Division on the same day
- 2528472The most likely outcome came true: 21:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.2.6
- 4228301The most likely outcome came true: 14:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 36% will not happen in roughly 64 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →