EFL Cup (Carabao Cup), round 4 · Thursday, 29 October, MSK
Everton — Newcastle United
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 29 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Everton are slightly stronger: 41% against 33%, draw 27%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.0).
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Everton are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Everton: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Everton 2 wins, Newcastle United 1, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Everton — Newcastle United What is xG? | 1.5–1.3 | |
| Everton not to lose | 67% | |
| Newcastle United not to lose | 59% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap Everton
- Everton goals
- Newcastle United goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10away · Hull City2:2
- 19.09Ipswich Town1:0
- 16.09Wolverhampton Wanderers1:0
- 12.09away · Tottenham Hotspur0:0
- 06.09Manchester United2:2
- 12.10away · Coventry City1:4
- 19.09Hull City2:1
- 14.09away · Leeds United1:4
- 08.09away · Millwall1:0
- 05.09AFC Bournemouth2:2
Head to head
- 28.02.2026Newcastle United — Everton2:3
- 29.11.2025Everton — Newcastle United1:4
- 25.05.2025Newcastle United — Everton0:1
- 05.10.2024Everton — Newcastle United0:0
- 02.04.2024Newcastle United — Everton1:1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →