Eredivisie (Netherlands), round 8 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Stadion Woudestein
Excelsior — FC Groningen
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1:5Missed
In short
Final score 1:5: the model's most likely outcome, a draw (30%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 30% fails in about 70 matches out of 100 on average.
Evenly matched: Excelsior 38%, FC Groningen 32%, draw 30%.
3.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 66%.
Why
- By the strength ratings FC Groningen are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Excelsior — FC Groningen What is xG? | 1.6–1.5 | |
| Excelsior not to lose | 68% | |
| FC Groningen not to lose | 62% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 66% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 34% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 60% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 40% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Excelsior
- Excelsior goals
- FC Groningen goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 19.09away · Ajax2:2
- 13.09FC Utrecht1:2
- 08.09away · NEC Nijmegen2:2
- 05.09away · Willem II3:0
- 29.08Sparta Rotterdam2:1
- 18.09PEC Zwolle3:0
- 12.09away · Go Ahead Eagles1:1
- 06.09FC Twente2:2
- 28.08Fortuna Sittard2:3
- 23.08away · PSV Eindhoven1:5
Head to head
- 02.05.2026FC Groningen — Excelsior2:3
- 05.12.2025Excelsior — FC Groningen0:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | +12 | 15 |
| 6 | FC Groningen | 8 | 4 | +6 | 14 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | +2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | +2 | 11 |
| 10 | SC Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
Next matches
- SC HeerenveenExcelsior16 October · Eredivisie5226221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1
- FC GroningenAjax18 October · Eredivisie3029412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.3
Eredivisie on the same day
- 7019111The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 3:1, exactly right.3.5
- 3928321The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:0.3.4
- 4729241The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →