Eredivisie (Netherlands), round 8 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · MAC³PARK Stadion

PEC Zwolle — Cambuur

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Model prediction and result

0:1Missed
PEC Zwolle39%
Draw28%
Cambuur32%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:1: the model's most likely outcome, PEC Zwolle to win (39%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 39% fails in about 61 matches out of 100 on average.

Evenly matched: PEC Zwolle 39%, Cambuur 32%, draw 28%.

3.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).

Over 2.5 goals — 66%, both teams to score — 70%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Cambuur are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.

Probabilities

Expected goals: PEC Zwolle — Cambuur What is xG?1.8–1.6
PEC Zwolle not to lose68%
Cambuur not to lose61%
No draw72%
Both teams to score: yes70%
Both teams to score: no30%
Total over 2.566%
Total under 2.534%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

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  • Handicap PEC Zwolle
  • PEC Zwolle goals
  • Cambuur goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Form

PEC Zwolle

  • 18.09away · FC Groningen0:3
  • 13.09Feyenoord0:7
  • 04.09away · Sparta Rotterdam2:2
  • 29.08NEC Nijmegen1:3
  • 22.08away · SC Heerenveen2:0

Cambuur

  • 19.09away · ADO Den Haag1:1
  • 12.09NEC Nijmegen3:0
  • 06.09away · Telstar2:2
  • 30.08FC Twente1:4
  • 23.08Feyenoord2:5

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
11NEC Nijmegen823313–14-19
12Cambuur822411–19-88
13FC Utrecht822414–25-118
15Telstar81347–14-76
16, Relegation play-offPEC Zwolle81166–21-154
17, RelegationADO Den Haag80359–19-103

Season 2026/27

Full table

Next matches

  • PEC ZwolleGo Ahead Eagles18 October · Eredivisie
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.3
  • CambuurAZ Alkmaar18 October · Eredivisie
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.4

Eredivisie on the same day

  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 3:1, exactly right.3.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 2:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
  • XThe most likely outcome did not happen: XFinal score 1:5. Model's score: 1:1.3.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →