Eredivisie (Netherlands), round 8 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Stadion Galgenwaard
FC Utrecht — Willem II
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
3:1Came true
In short
Final score 3:1: the model's most likely outcome, FC Utrecht to win (70%), came true.
FC Utrecht are clear favourites: 70% against 11% for the opponent, draw 19%.
3.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 68%, both teams to score — 61%.
Why
- By the strength ratings FC Utrecht are about 1.0 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: FC Utrecht — Willem II What is xG? | 2.5–1.0 | |
| FC Utrecht not to lose | 89% | |
| Willem II not to lose | 30% | |
| No draw | 81% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 68% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 32% |
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- All totals
- Handicap FC Utrecht
- FC Utrecht goals
- Willem II goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 20.09away · Feyenoord0:5
- 13.09away · Excelsior2:1
- 08.09Go Ahead Eagles3:3
- 30.08PSV Eindhoven1:6
- 22.08away · Sparta Rotterdam3:3
- 19.09Fortuna Sittard0:1
- 15.09away · Ajax1:5
- 11.09away · AZ Alkmaar1:1
- 05.09Excelsior0:3
- 30.08SC Heerenveen2:2
Head to head
- 09.03.2025Willem II — FC Utrecht2:3
- 21.09.2024FC Utrecht — Willem II3:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | FC Utrecht | 8 | 2 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 8 | 1 | -7 | 6 |
| 17, Relegation | ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | -10 | 3 |
| 18, Relegation | Willem II | 8 | 0 | -16 | 2 |
Next matches
- Sparta RotterdamWillem II17 October · Eredivisie6222151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.3
- FC TwenteFC Utrecht18 October · Eredivisie6123161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.1
Eredivisie on the same day
- 3928321The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:0.3.4
- 4729241The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
- 383032XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X1:5Final score 1:5. Model's score: 1:1.3.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 70% will not happen in roughly 30 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →