J1 League (Japan), round 13 · Saturday, 31 October, MSK
Fagiano Okayama FC — FC Tokyo
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 31 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
FC Tokyo are slightly stronger: 43% against 28%, draw 29%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 51%.
Why
- By the strength ratings FC Tokyo are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Fagiano Okayama FC — No. 9, 13 pts; FC Tokyo — No. 4, 20 pts. A gap of 7 pts.
- FC Tokyo: 4 wins in a row.
- Last 2 meetings: Fagiano Okayama FC 1 win, FC Tokyo 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Fagiano Okayama FC — FC Tokyo What is xG? | 1.1–1.4 | |
| Fagiano Okayama FC not to lose | 57% | |
| FC Tokyo not to lose | 72% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 45% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 55% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Fagiano Okayama FC
- Fagiano Okayama FC goals
- FC Tokyo goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · Avispa Fukuoka1:2
- 19.09Kyoto Sanga FC1:2
- 13.09away · Urawa Red Diamonds2:1
- 06.09Sanfrecce Hiroshima3:2
- 02.09away · JEF United Chiba2:1
- 10.10Urawa Red Diamonds3:0
- 19.09Nagoya Grampus1:0
- 12.09away · Gamba Osaka2:0
- 06.09Kyoto Sanga FC2:0
- 02.09away · Shimizu S-Pulse1:1
Head to head
- 25.10.2025FC Tokyo — Fagiano Okayama FC3:1
- 06.04.2025Fagiano Okayama FC — FC Tokyo1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Machida Zelvia | 9 | 6 | +12 | 20 |
| 4 | FC Tokyo | 9 | 6 | +9 | 20 |
| 5 | Vissel Kobe | 9 | 6 | +5 | 19 |
| 8 | Kawasaki Frontale | 9 | 3 | +3 | 13 |
| 9 | Fagiano Okayama FC | 9 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 10 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 9 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
J1 League on the same day
- Kyoto Sanga FCShimizu S-Pulsepreliminary4128311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6
- Mito HollyhockSanfrecce Hiroshimapreliminary1322652The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.7
- Kashima AntlersCerezo Osakapreliminary4927241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- Vissel KobeNagoya Grampuspreliminary5326211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- Kashiwa ReysolUrawa Red Diamondspreliminary5525201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →