Scottish Premiership, round 8 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · The Falkirk Stadium
Falkirk — Dundee FC
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In short
Final score 1:2: the model's most likely outcome, Falkirk to win (57%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 57% fails in about 43 matches out of 100 on average.
Falkirk are clear favourites: 57% against 19% for the opponent, draw 24%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 53%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Falkirk are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Last 3 meetings: Falkirk 2 wins, Dundee FC 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Falkirk — Dundee FC What is xG? | 1.8–1.0 | |
| Falkirk not to lose | 81% | |
| Dundee FC not to lose | 43% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Falkirk
- Falkirk goals
- Dundee FC goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 19.09away · St. Johnstone1:1
- 15.09Heart of Midlothian2:1
- 05.09away · Dundee United1:1
- 02.09Rangers1:2
- 29.08away · Celtic1:2
- 19.09Motherwell2:1
- 06.09away · Heart of Midlothian1:2
- 02.09St. Johnstone1:1
- 30.08Hibernian1:2
- 22.08away · Dundee United2:0
Head to head
- 11.02.2026Falkirk — Dundee FC1:0
- 27.12.2025Dundee FC — Falkirk1:0
- 25.10.2025Falkirk — Dundee FC2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Championship round | Heart of Midlothian | 8 | 5 | +11 | 16 |
| 4, Championship round | Dundee FC | 8 | 4 | +3 | 13 |
| 5, Championship round | St. Johnstone | 8 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10, Relegation round | Hibernian | 8 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 11, Relegation round | Falkirk | 8 | 1 | -4 | 6 |
| 12, Relegation round | Kilmarnock | 8 | 1 | -11 | 5 |
Next matches
- HibernianFalkirk17 October · Scottish Premiership5326211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- Dundee FCRangers17 October · Scottish Premiership1121692The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.2
Scottish Premiership on the same day
- 3129392The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 0:1.2.8
- 5726171The most likely outcome came true: 15:0Final score 5:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.4
- 821261The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 3:0.3.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 57% will not happen in roughly 43 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →