2. Bundesliga, round 7 · Friday, 9 October, MSK · Voith-Arena
FC Heidenheim — Kaiserslautern
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In short
Final score 0:0: the model's most likely outcome, FC Heidenheim to win (54%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 54% fails in about 46 matches out of 100 on average.
FC Heidenheim are clear favourites: 54% against 23% for the opponent, draw 24%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.5 in total, against a competition average of 3.0.
Over 2.5 goals — 69%, both teams to score — 68%.
Why
- By the strength ratings FC Heidenheim are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: FC Heidenheim — Kaiserslautern What is xG? | 2.2–1.4 | |
| FC Heidenheim not to lose | 77% | |
| Kaiserslautern not to lose | 46% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 68% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 32% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 69% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 31% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap FC Heidenheim
- FC Heidenheim goals
- Kaiserslautern goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 20.09away · Arminia Bielefeld2:2
- 13.09Holstein Kiel1:0
- 06.09away · Greuther Fürth1:0
- 29.08Dynamo Dresden5:3
- 23.08away · SSV Jeddeloh2:5
- 19.09Eintracht Braunschweig1:0
- 12.09away · Magdeburg0:3
- 05.09Darmstadt3:0
- 30.08away · St. Pauli2:1
- 21.08away · Waldhof Mannheim1:0
Head to head
- 01.04.2023Kaiserslautern — FC Heidenheim2:2
- 18.09.2022FC Heidenheim — Kaiserslautern2:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Promotion | 1. FC Nürnberg | 7 | 5 | +10 | 17 |
| 3, Promotion play-offs | FC Heidenheim | 7 | 4 | +2 | 14 |
| 4 | Magdeburg | 7 | 4 | +5 | 13 |
| 5 | Wolfsburg | 7 | 3 | +7 | 12 |
| 6 | Kaiserslautern | 7 | 3 | +2 | 12 |
| 7 | St. Pauli | 7 | 2 | +2 | 10 |
Next matches
- WolfsburgFC Heidenheim17 October · 2. Bundesliga4225341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:14.4
- KaiserslauternBochum17 October · 2. Bundesliga4328281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
2. Bundesliga on the same day
- 3828341The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 54% will not happen in roughly 46 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →