Russian Premier League, round 12 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
FC Krasnodar — Baltika
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
FC Krasnodar are clear favourites: 52% against 17% for the opponent, draw 30%.
2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 39%, both teams to score — 46%.
Why
- By the strength ratings FC Krasnodar are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: FC Krasnodar — Baltika What is xG? | 1.4–0.8 | |
| FC Krasnodar not to lose | 83% | |
| Baltika not to lose | 48% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 46% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 54% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 39% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 61% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap FC Krasnodar
- FC Krasnodar goals
- Baltika goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 13.10Fakel0:2
- 10.10Zenit St. Petersburg2:3
- 17.09away · FC Orenburg0:0
- 13.09Akron Togliatti1:1
- 05.09away · Krylya Sovetov Samara2:2
- 11.10away · FK Akhmat0:0
- 16.09Zenit St. Petersburg2:3
- 12.09away · Fakel2:2
- 06.09Lokomotiv Moscow0:1
- 02.09Krylya Sovetov Samara0:0
Head to head
- 19.04.2026FC Krasnodar — Baltika2:2
- 09.11.2025Baltika — FC Krasnodar1:1
- 24.04.2024FC Krasnodar — Baltika3:2
- 21.10.2023Baltika — FC Krasnodar2:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Zenit St. Petersburg | 10 | 7 | +11 | 21 |
| 4 | FC Krasnodar | 10 | 6 | +6 | 21 |
| 5 | Spartak Moscow | 10 | 6 | +9 | 20 |
| 6 | Baltika | 10 | 3 | +2 | 12 |
| 7 | FC Orenburg | 10 | 2 | +1 | 12 |
Russian Premier League on the same day
- Akron TogliattiDinamo Moscowpreliminary1728552The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.0
- FakelRodinapreliminary4431251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
- Rubin KazanKrylya Sovetov Samarapreliminary4631231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →