Russian Premier League, round 12 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
Fakel — Rodina
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Fakel are slightly stronger: 44% against 25%, draw 31%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 53%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Fakel — Rodina What is xG? | 1.5–1.1 | |
| Fakel not to lose | 75% | |
| Rodina not to lose | 56% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 46% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 54% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap Fakel
- Fakel goals
- Rodina goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 13.10away · FC Krasnodar2:0
- 10.10Lokomotiv Moscow0:5
- 16.09away · Spartak Moscow0:1
- 12.09Baltika2:2
- 05.09away · FC Rostov1:3
- 11.10away · CSKA Moscow0:3
- 16.09Rubin Kazan1:1
- 11.09away · Krylya Sovetov Samara1:2
- 06.09away · Dynamo Makhachkala0:2
- 02.09away · Spartak Moscow1:3
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14, Relegation play-off | Akron Togliatti | 10 | 1 | -8 | 8 |
| 15, Relegation | Rodina | 10 | 1 | -15 | 5 |
| 16, Relegation | Fakel | 10 | 0 | -12 | 3 |
Russian Premier League on the same day
- Akron TogliattiDinamo Moscowpreliminary1728552The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.0
- Rubin KazanKrylya Sovetov Samarapreliminary4631231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
- FC KrasnodarBaltikapreliminary5230171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →