Russian Premier League, round 12 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
FC Rostov — Lokomotiv Moscow
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: FC Rostov 36%, Lokomotiv Moscow 32%, draw 32%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- League table: FC Rostov — No. 12, 11 pts; Lokomotiv Moscow — No. 13, 10 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
- Last 5 meetings: FC Rostov 2 wins, Lokomotiv Moscow 1, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: FC Rostov — Lokomotiv Moscow What is xG? | 1.3–1.3 | |
| FC Rostov not to lose | 68% | |
| Lokomotiv Moscow not to lose | 64% | |
| No draw | 68% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 48% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 52% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap FC Rostov
- FC Rostov goals
- Lokomotiv Moscow goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 09.10Akron Togliatti1:0
- 17.09Dinamo Moscow0:3
- 13.09away · Spartak Moscow0:3
- 05.09Fakel3:1
- 01.09CSKA Moscow2:0
- 13.10Akron Togliatti1:1
- 10.10away · Fakel5:0
- 16.09Krylya Sovetov Samara1:1
- 12.09away · Zenit St. Petersburg1:2
- 06.09away · Baltika1:0
Head to head
- 18.08.2026FC Rostov — Lokomotiv Moscow1:0
- 30.11.2025FC Rostov — Lokomotiv Moscow1:3
- 23.08.2025Lokomotiv Moscow — FC Rostov3:3
- 30.04.2025Lokomotiv Moscow — FC Rostov0:2
- 26.04.2025FC Rostov — Lokomotiv Moscow1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | FK Akhmat | 10 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 | FC Rostov | 10 | 3 | -6 | 11 |
| 13, Relegation play-off | Lokomotiv Moscow | 10 | 2 | +2 | 10 |
| 14, Relegation play-off | Akron Togliatti | 10 | 1 | -8 | 8 |
Russian Premier League on the same day
- CSKA MoscowSpartak Moscowpreliminary353332XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.7
- Zenit St. PetersburgDynamo Makhachkalapreliminary722081The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 36% will not happen in roughly 64 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →