Eredivisie (Netherlands), round 10 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
FC Utrecht — PEC Zwolle
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
FC Utrecht are clear favourites: 59% against 18% for the opponent, draw 23%.
3.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 64%, both teams to score — 62%.
Why
- By the strength ratings FC Utrecht are about 0.9 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: FC Utrecht — No. 13, 8 pts; PEC Zwolle — No. 16, 4 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
- PEC Zwolle: 3 defeats in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: FC Utrecht 3 wins, PEC Zwolle 0, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: FC Utrecht — PEC Zwolle What is xG? | 2.1–1.1 | |
| FC Utrecht not to lose | 82% | |
| PEC Zwolle not to lose | 41% | |
| No draw | 77% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 62% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 38% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 64% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 36% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap FC Utrecht
- FC Utrecht goals
- PEC Zwolle goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10Willem II3:1
- 20.09away · Feyenoord0:5
- 13.09away · Excelsior2:1
- 08.09Go Ahead Eagles3:3
- 30.08PSV Eindhoven1:6
- 11.10Cambuur0:1
- 18.09away · FC Groningen0:3
- 13.09Feyenoord0:7
- 04.09away · Sparta Rotterdam2:2
- 29.08NEC Nijmegen1:3
Head to head
- 22.02.2026FC Utrecht — PEC Zwolle1:1
- 31.08.2025PEC Zwolle — FC Utrecht0:2
- 01.02.2025PEC Zwolle — FC Utrecht3:3
- 11.08.2024FC Utrecht — PEC Zwolle1:0
- 03.04.2024FC Utrecht — PEC Zwolle5:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | FC Utrecht | 8 | 2 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 8 | 1 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | -7 | 6 |
| 16, Relegation play-off | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | -15 | 4 |
| 17, Relegation | ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | -10 | 3 |
Eredivisie on the same day
- Willem IICambuurpreliminary3329382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.2
- ADO Den HaagSC Heerenveenpreliminary3029422The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 59% will not happen in roughly 41 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →