Kazakhstan Premier League, round 28 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK
FC Yelimay — Aktobe
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1:3Missed
In short
Final score 1:3: the model's most likely outcome, FC Yelimay to win (44%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 44% fails in about 56 matches out of 100 on average.
FC Yelimay are slightly stronger: 44% against 29%, draw 27%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 60%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: FC Yelimay — Aktobe What is xG? | 1.6–1.3 | |
| FC Yelimay not to lose | 71% | |
| Aktobe not to lose | 56% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 60% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 40% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 56% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 44% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap FC Yelimay
- FC Yelimay goals
- Aktobe goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 17.09away · Tobol Kostanay2:0
- 12.09Zhetysu Taldykorgan2:1
- 06.09away · FC Astana0:4
- 31.08Kairat Almaty0:2
- 16.08away · Kaspiy Aktau2:2
- 18.09Ulytau2:2
- 12.09away · Kaspiy Aktau2:1
- 05.09Zhenis1:0
- 30.08away · Irtysh Pavlodar1:2
- 15.08away · Kaisar Kyzylorda2:1
Head to head
- 21.03.2026Aktobe — FC Yelimay1:4
- 10.08.2025FC Yelimay — Aktobe2:1
- 11.05.2025Aktobe — FC Yelimay1:0
- 31.08.2024Aktobe — FC Yelimay1:3
- 16.06.2024FC Yelimay — Aktobe2:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | FC Astana | 26 | 14 | +16 | 48 |
| 4 | Aktobe | 27 | 13 | +9 | 45 |
| 5 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 27 | 13 | +4 | 45 |
| 6 | FC Yelimay | 26 | 10 | 0 | 38 |
| 7 | Tobol Kostanay | 27 | 11 | -1 | 37 |
Next matches
- AtyrauFC Yelimay14 October · Kazakhstan Premier League3130392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.3
- AktobeOrdabasy Shymkent17 October · Kazakhstan Premier League2627462The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.7
Kazakhstan Premier League on the same day
- 4429271The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.3
- 2828452The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 0:1.2.8
- 89831The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:1.3.4
- 5129211The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:0.1.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →