Kazakhstan Premier League, round 28 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK

FC Yelimay — Aktobe

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Model prediction and result

1:3Missed
FC Yelimay44%
Draw27%
Aktobe29%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:3: the model's most likely outcome, FC Yelimay to win (44%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 44% fails in about 56 matches out of 100 on average.

FC Yelimay are slightly stronger: 44% against 29%, draw 27%.

2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).

Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 60%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.

Probabilities

Expected goals: FC Yelimay — Aktobe What is xG?1.6–1.3
FC Yelimay not to lose71%
Aktobe not to lose56%
No draw73%
Both teams to score: yes60%
Both teams to score: no40%
Total over 2.556%
Total under 2.544%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap FC Yelimay
  • FC Yelimay goals
  • Aktobe goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Form

FC Yelimay

  • 17.09away · Tobol Kostanay2:0
  • 12.09Zhetysu Taldykorgan2:1
  • 06.09away · FC Astana0:4
  • 31.08Kairat Almaty0:2
  • 16.08away · Kaspiy Aktau2:2

Aktobe

  • 18.09Ulytau2:2
  • 12.09away · Kaspiy Aktau2:1
  • 05.09Zhenis1:0
  • 30.08away · Irtysh Pavlodar1:2
  • 15.08away · Kaisar Kyzylorda2:1

Head to head

  • 21.03.2026Aktobe — FC Yelimay1:4
  • 10.08.2025FC Yelimay — Aktobe2:1
  • 11.05.2025Aktobe — FC Yelimay1:0
  • 31.08.2024Aktobe — FC Yelimay1:3
  • 16.06.2024FC Yelimay — Aktobe2:2

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
3FC Astana26146643–27+1648
4Aktobe27136841–32+945
5Okzhetpes Kokshetau27136841–37+445
6FC Yelimay26108836–36038
7Tobol Kostanay271141235–36-137

Season 2026

Full table

Next matches

  • AtyrauFC Yelimay14 October · Kazakhstan Premier League
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.3
  • AktobeOrdabasy Shymkent17 October · Kazakhstan Premier League
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.7

Kazakhstan Premier League on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →