UEFA Nations League, round 2, League C, group 1 · Tuesday, 29 September, MSK · Helsingin olympiastadion
Finland — Belarus
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In short
Final score 0:0: the model's most likely outcome, Finland to win (57%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 57% fails in about 43 matches out of 100 on average.
Finland are clear favourites: 57% against 19% for the opponent, draw 25%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 2.8 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 53%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Finland 1539, Belarus 1507 — Finland rated higher.
- Finland: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Finland — Belarus What is xG? | 1.8–1.0 | |
| Finland not to lose | 81% | |
| Belarus not to lose | 43% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Finland
- Finland goals
- Belarus goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 26.09away · San Marino7:0
- 05.06away · Hungary1:2
- 31.05away · Germany0:4
- 30.03away · Cape Verde1:1
- 27.03away · New Zealand2:0
- 26.09away · Albania0:2
- 09.06Burkina Faso2:2
- 05.06Syria4:1
- 29.03away · Armenia2:1
- 26.03away · Cyprus1:0
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion to the league above | Albania | 4 | 3 | +5 | 9 |
| 2, Promotion play-offs | Finland | 4 | 2 | +7 | 7 |
| 3 | Belarus | 4 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 4 | San Marino | 4 | 0 | -15 | 0 |
Next matches
- FinlandAlbania3 October · UEFA Nations League3432341The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.2
- BelarusSan Marino3 October · UEFA Nations League871121The most likely outcome came true: 14:0Final score 4:0. Model's score: 2:0.3.1
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- 2830422The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 0:1.2.4
- 919722The most likely outcome came true: 20:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.3.0
- 771671The most likely outcome came true: 14:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 2:0.3.1
- 1925562The most likely outcome came true: 20:3Final score 0:3. Model's score: 0:1.2.8
- 5428181The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
- 17932The most likely outcome came true: 20:3Final score 0:3. Model's score: 0:3, exactly right.3.3
- 7021101The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.7
- 4629251The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 57% will not happen in roughly 43 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →