UEFA Nations League, round 2, League C, group 3 · Tuesday, 29 September, MSK · Košická futbalová aréna
Slovakia — Kazakhstan
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2:1Came true
In short
Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Slovakia to win (70%), came true.
Slovakia are clear favourites: 70% against 10% for the opponent, draw 21%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).
Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 42%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Slovakia 1670, Kazakhstan 1431 — Slovakia clearly rated higher.
- Slovakia: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Slovakia — Kazakhstan What is xG? | 2.1–0.7 | |
| Slovakia not to lose | 90% | |
| Kazakhstan not to lose | 30% | |
| No draw | 79% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 42% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 58% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 51% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 49% |
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- Handicap Slovakia
- Slovakia goals
- Kazakhstan goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 26.09away · Faroe Islands1:1
- 09.06away · Hungary1:3
- 06.06away · Armenia1:1
- 31.03Comoros1:0
- 25.03Namibia2:0
Head to head
- 13.06.2022Kazakhstan — Slovakia2:1
- 06.06.2022Slovakia — Kazakhstan0:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion to the league above | Slovakia | 4 | 3 | +7 | 10 |
| 2, Promotion play-offs | Faroe Islands | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Moldova | 4 | 1 | -5 | 4 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 4 | 0 | -2 | 2 |
Next matches
- KazakhstanMoldova2 October · UEFA Nations League5426201The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.7
- Faroe IslandsSlovakia2 October · UEFA Nations League1325632The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 0:1.2.5
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- 5725191The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.8
- 2830422The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 0:1.2.4
- 919722The most likely outcome came true: 20:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.3.0
- 771671The most likely outcome came true: 14:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 2:0.3.1
- 1925562The most likely outcome came true: 20:3Final score 0:3. Model's score: 0:1.2.8
- 5428181The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
- 17932The most likely outcome came true: 20:3Final score 0:3. Model's score: 0:3, exactly right.3.3
- 4629251The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 70% will not happen in roughly 30 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →