Brazilian Serie A, round 30 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho (Maracanã)
Flamengo — Fluminense
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1:0Came true
In short
Final score 1:0: the model's most likely outcome, Flamengo to win (67%), came true.
Flamengo are clear favourites: 67% against 12% for the opponent, draw 20%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 49%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Flamengo are about 0.9 goals per match stronger.
- Flamengo: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Flamengo — Fluminense What is xG? | 2.0–0.8 | |
| Flamengo not to lose | 88% | |
| Fluminense not to lose | 33% | |
| No draw | 80% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 49% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 51% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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Form
- 09.10away · Santos2:2
- 21.09RB Bragantino2:1
- 18.09Independiente del Valle1:1
- 13.09Corinthians2:1
- 11.09away · Independiente del Valle2:0
- 09.10Coritiba4:0
- 20.09away · Corinthians3:1
- 16.09away · Club Atlético Platense1:2
- 12.09away · Atlético-MG1:3
- 09.09Club Atlético Platense2:0
Head to head
- 13.04.2026Fluminense — Flamengo1:2
- 20.11.2025Fluminense — Flamengo2:1
- 21.07.2025Flamengo — Fluminense1:0
- 18.10.2024Flamengo — Fluminense0:2
- 23.06.2024Fluminense — Flamengo0:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Copa Libertadores | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | +33 | 64 |
| 2, Copa Libertadores | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | +30 | 63 |
| 3, Copa Libertadores | Athletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | +14 | 53 |
| 4, Copa Libertadores | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | +11 | 51 |
| 5, Copa Libertadores | Bahia | 30 | 13 | +8 | 49 |
Next matches
- FluminensePalmeiras15 October · Copa Libertadores373033XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.3
- EstudiantesFlamengo16 October · Copa Libertadores2629452The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.3
Brasileirao on the same day
- 6222161The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.9
- 5028221The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
- 5027231The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.2.7
- 6324121The most likely outcome came true: 14:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.3
- 373034XThe most likely outcome came true: X1:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:1, exactly right.2.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 67% will not happen in roughly 33 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →