CONMEBOL Copa Libertadores, playoff · Friday, 16 October, MSK
Estudiantes — Flamengo
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 16 October
In short
Flamengo are slightly stronger: 45% against 26%, draw 29%.
2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.1).
Over 2.5 goals — 42%, both teams to score — 47%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Flamengo are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Estudiantes — Flamengo What is xG? | 1.0–1.4 | |
| Estudiantes not to lose | 55% | |
| Flamengo not to lose | 74% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 47% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 53% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 42% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 58% |
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Form
- 10.10away · Central Córdoba de Santiago2:2
- 06.10Gimnasia Mendoza3:0
- 02.10away · Club Atlético Platense0:1
- 22.09away · Lanús1:2
- 17.09away · Corinthians1:0
- 11.10Fluminense1:0
- 09.10away · Santos2:2
- 21.09RB Bragantino2:1
- 18.09Independiente del Valle1:1
- 13.09Corinthians2:1
Head to head
- 21.05.2026Flamengo — Estudiantes1:0
- 30.04.2026Estudiantes — Flamengo1:1
- 26.09.2025Estudiantes — Flamengo1:0
- 19.09.2025Flamengo — Estudiantes2:1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →