Brazilian Serie A, round 30 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · MorumBIS
São Paulo — Vitória
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
2:1Came true
In short
Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, São Paulo to win (50%), came true.
São Paulo are clear favourites: 50% against 22% for the opponent, draw 28%.
2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 47%.
Why
- By the strength ratings São Paulo are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
- São Paulo: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: São Paulo — Vitória What is xG? | 1.4–0.9 | |
| São Paulo not to lose | 78% | |
| Vitória not to lose | 50% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 47% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 53% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 41% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 59% |
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Form
- 08.10away · Cruzeiro0:2
- 03.10Santos1:2
- 20.09Internacional1:0
- 16.09Boca Juniors1:1
- 13.09away · Palmeiras0:2
- 08.10Chapecoense4:0
- 20.09Cruzeiro1:3
- 13.09away · Mirassol2:2
- 08.09Grêmio1:0
- 03.09Vasco da Gama0:2
Head to head
- 11.04.2026Vitória — São Paulo2:0
- 07.12.2025Vitória — São Paulo1:0
- 10.08.2025São Paulo — Vitória2:0
- 26.08.2024São Paulo — Vitória2:1
- 05.05.2024Vitória — São Paulo1:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9, Copa Sudamericana | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | +3 | 40 |
| 10, Copa Sudamericana | São Paulo | 30 | 11 | 0 | 39 |
| 11, Copa Sudamericana | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | -5 | 36 |
| 13 | Vitória | 30 | 10 | -11 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco da Gama | 29 | 9 | -6 | 35 |
Next matches
- São PauloVasco da Gama18 October · Brasileirao4528261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
- CorinthiansVitória20 October · Brasileirao5726181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.3
Brasileirao on the same day
- 6222161The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.9
- 5027231The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.2.7
- 6720121The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.8
- 6324121The most likely outcome came true: 14:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.3
- 373034XThe most likely outcome came true: X1:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:1, exactly right.2.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →