Brazilian Serie A, round 31 · Sunday, 18 October, MSK
Fluminense — Santos
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 18 October
In short
Fluminense are clear favourites: 56% against 19% for the opponent, draw 25%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 52%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Fluminense are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Fluminense — Santos What is xG? | 1.7–0.9 | |
| Fluminense not to lose | 81% | |
| Santos not to lose | 44% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 50% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 50% |
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Form
- 11.10away · Flamengo0:1
- 09.10Coritiba4:0
- 20.09away · Corinthians3:1
- 16.09away · Club Atlético Platense1:2
- 12.09away · Atlético-MG1:3
- 11.10away · Atlético-MG1:2
- 09.10Flamengo2:2
- 03.10away · São Paulo2:1
- 20.09away · Remo2:1
- 17.09away · Atlético-MG2:4
Head to head
- 19.04.2026Santos — Fluminense2:3
- 31.08.2025Santos — Fluminense0:0
- 14.04.2025Fluminense — Santos1:0
- 30.11.2023Santos — Fluminense0:3
- 29.07.2023Fluminense — Santos1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Copa Libertadores | Athletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | +14 | 53 |
| 4, Copa Libertadores | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | +11 | 51 |
| 5, Copa Libertadores | Bahia | 30 | 13 | +8 | 49 |
| 7, Copa Sudamericana | Atlético-MG | 30 | 13 | +6 | 47 |
| 8, Copa Sudamericana | Santos | 30 | 11 | +1 | 42 |
| 9, Copa Sudamericana | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | +3 | 40 |
Brasileirao on the same day
- 7019111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
- 6621131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- 3729341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
- 4528261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
- 3129402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 56% will not happen in roughly 44 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →