Bundesliga, round 5 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Europa-Park Stadion
Freiburg — Schalke 04
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
2:1Came true
In short
Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Freiburg to win (61%), came true.
Freiburg are clear favourites: 61% against 15% for the opponent, draw 24%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Freiburg are about 1.0 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Freiburg — Schalke 04 What is xG? | 2.0–1.0 | |
| Freiburg not to lose | 85% | |
| Schalke 04 not to lose | 39% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 59% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 41% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Freiburg
- Freiburg goals
- Schalke 04 goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 19.09away · Eintracht Frankfurt2:2
- 12.09Borussia Mönchengladbach5:0
- 05.09away · Paderborn1:0
- 30.08Werder Bremen4:1
- 23.08away · Fortuna Düsseldorf5:1
- 20.09Elversberg0:0
- 11.09away · Union Berlin3:1
- 05.09Bayern München0:0
- 30.08away · Augsburg0:3
- 24.08away · Hallescher FC5:2
Head to head
- 23.04.2023Freiburg — Schalke 044:0
- 30.10.2022Schalke 04 — Freiburg0:2
- 17.04.2021Freiburg — Schalke 044:0
- 16.12.2020Schalke 04 — Freiburg0:2
- 27.06.2020Freiburg — Schalke 044:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League | Freiburg | 5 | 4 | +10 | 13 |
| 2, Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | +7 | 13 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | -7 | 5 |
Next matches
- FreiburgJablonec15 October · Conference League781571The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.4
- Schalke 04Mainz 0517 October · Bundesliga2330472The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.1
Bundesliga on the same day
- 4428281The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:0.3.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 61% will not happen in roughly 39 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →