Bundesliga, round 6 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Schalke 04 — Mainz 05
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Mainz 05 are clear favourites: 47% against 23% for the opponent, draw 30%.
3.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 65%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Mainz 05 are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Schalke 04 — No. 13, 5 pts; Mainz 05 — No. 8, 7 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Schalke 04 2 wins, Mainz 05 0, 3 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Schalke 04 — Mainz 05 What is xG? | 1.3–1.8 | |
| Schalke 04 not to lose | 53% | |
| Mainz 05 not to lose | 77% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 65% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 35% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 59% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 41% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Schalke 04
- Schalke 04 goals
- Mainz 05 goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10away · Freiburg1:2
- 20.09Elversberg0:0
- 11.09away · Union Berlin3:1
- 05.09Bayern München0:0
- 30.08away · Augsburg0:3
- 10.10Bayer Leverkusen3:4
- 19.09away · Borussia Mönchengladbach4:3
- 12.09Eintracht Frankfurt1:3
- 06.09away · Hamburger SV5:0
- 29.08Paderborn0:0
Head to head
- 05.05.2023Mainz 05 — Schalke 042:3
- 09.11.2022Schalke 04 — Mainz 051:0
- 05.03.2021Schalke 04 — Mainz 050:0
- 07.11.2020Mainz 05 — Schalke 042:2
- 16.02.2020Mainz 05 — Schalke 040:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 | Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | -7 | 5 |
Bundesliga on the same day
- 4328291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1
- 2026542The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.3
- 1823592The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.0
- 4929221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6
- 801371The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:14.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →