Bundesliga, round 5 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · RheinEnergieSTADION
1. FC Köln — Borussia Mönchengladbach
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
2:1Came true
In short
Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, 1. FC Köln to win (44%), came true.
1. FC Köln are slightly stronger: 44% against 28%, draw 28%.
3.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 64%, both teams to score — 67%.
Why
- By the strength ratings 1. FC Köln are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: 1. FC Köln — Borussia Mönchengladbach What is xG? | 1.9–1.4 | |
| 1. FC Köln not to lose | 72% | |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach not to lose | 56% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 67% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 33% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 64% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 36% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap 1. FC Köln
- 1. FC Köln goals
- Borussia Mönchengladbach goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 19.09away · Hamburger SV1:2
- 12.09Werder Bremen1:1
- 04.09away · VfB Stuttgart1:4
- 29.08Hoffenheim3:2
- 24.08away · Würzburger Kickers2:1
- 19.09Mainz 053:4
- 12.09away · Freiburg0:5
- 05.09Elversberg3:4
- 29.08away · RB Leipzig0:3
- 23.08away · TSV Schott Mainz5:0
Head to head
- 21.03.20261. FC Köln — Borussia Mönchengladbach3:3
- 08.11.2025Borussia Mönchengladbach — 1. FC Köln3:1
- 09.03.2024Borussia Mönchengladbach — 1. FC Köln3:3
- 22.10.20231. FC Köln — Borussia Mönchengladbach3:1
- 02.04.20231. FC Köln — Borussia Mönchengladbach0:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 17, Relegation | Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | -4 | 3 |
| 18, Relegation | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 0 | -11 | 0 |
Next matches
- Eintracht Frankfurt1. FC Köln16 October · Bundesliga5226221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.4
- Borussia MönchengladbachHoffenheim18 October · Bundesliga3428382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.3
Bundesliga on the same day
- 6124151The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.3.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →